Articles

 
By Bill Murphy
 
We have been following Red Sox baseball for close to sixty years now and there has never been a season like this. One-third of the campaign has passed us by and Bobby Valentine and Ben Cherington are still holding auditions for the final roster. Due to an inordinate amount of injuries to prime time players and some slow starts, it seems spring training has been extended indefinitely. It could be August 1st with the team in position to play their third game of a ten game homestand (against Detroit) or even later, when the powers that be make their final decisions of who officially makes up the roster of the Olde Town team in 2012. Since trades on most players eligible for the post season can actually take place through August 31st, maybe the auditions will be extended even an extra month.
 
The Sox have actually done very well to tread water to this point. For the second year in a row, they crawled out of the gate and it took almost that full third of 2012 to nose over the .500 mark for the first time. Thanks to the fact that all the teams in the American League East failed to get off to a red hot start, the Bostonians are still in good shape for the long haul. Entering a period in which the Sox have 15 straight games of interleague play (including six straight on the road using no designated hitter), Boston is only a series sweep away from being in a play-off spot. That is quite an accomplishment for a team which started so poorly and has made 19 roster moves during the first 57 games, exactly an amazing one every three days.

 

Boston' most consistent players for the first third of the campaign have been David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Felix Doubront and much of the bullpen. A recent spark has been supplied by the arrival of Daniel Nava, Will Middlebrooks, Scott Podsednik and Marlon Byrd. Manager Bobby Valentine started the season as a villian, but recently most fans in the know feel, he is starting to center in on the pulse of this team.

 

There would be nothing greater, as a member of Sox Nation, than to be a fly on the wall when Cherington and company talk about what direction they are heading for a final roster make-up. When the trading deadline comes around both July and August 31st, everyone may be amazed at what could happen. Kevin Youkilis' name is the leader in the headlines of trade discussions, but the odds are at least 50-50, he will be with the team down the stretch .Don't be surprised if a few players are dealt though. And by the way, the names might catch you by surprise. Here are how the teams measures up at the one-third mark with any statistics given retro active to that day:

 

STARTING PITCHING (C-)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- Only one pitcher has missed a start to date and that was Josh Beckett, when he had the strained lat muscle in May. Few Sox teams in recent years have been able to go this long without someone missing significant time, so that is a story in itself. So has been the pitching of Felix Doubront. He was penciled into the number four spot in the teams rotation and has proven to be their most consistent arm. His 6-2 record and 3.75 ERA are impressive as are his 59 hits allowed and 25 walks and 66 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings pitched. His .244 opponents batting average is the best of any Sox starter. Buchholz at 6-2 also has come on strong hurling well in five of his last six starts. His ERA is still the rotations highest, but has dropped from just under 10 a game to 5.77. His 73 1/3 innings is second on the team and his ability to get a grip on his change-up and work at a faster pace has fans much more comfortable. Josh Beckett has also become more realiable and although his record stands at 4-6, he has brought his ERA down to 4.04 and his record would most likely be reversed and even better if the offense would show up on nights he pitched. He is second in the rotation in batting average against (.247) and in 71 1/3 frames has held hitters to 67 hits with a respectable 16 to 51 walk to strikeout ratio.

 

THE BAD NEWS- Sox pitching overall is 12th in ERA in the American League and that number is driven by the starters. Jon Lester was expected to be the ace of the staff and rarely has he pitched like that. He has an average (4.64) ERA after establishing himself over the last four seasons with no ERA over 3.47 and putting up a four year average of 3.36. His lifetime record of 76-34 entering this season in no way resembles his 3-4 mark this year. In addition, in his 813 frames thrown over the past four campaigns, he only gave up a stingy 721 hits. This year he has surrendered 79 hits in 73 2/3 innings. In another short comparison, Lester produced a 288-984 walk to strikeout ratio in the last four years (more than a 3-1 breakdown) and he is about 2-1 this year with numbers at 23-53. Daniel Bard did manage to collect 5 wins as a starter, but his wildness (37 BB to 34 K's) especially in facing lefties (22 BB to 14 K's) contributed to his 5.24 ERA, as did his AL leading hit batsman (8) while he was tied for second in the league in balks. Daisuke Matsuzaka becomes the seventh starter for the team this season. Aaron Cook had one ill fated rotation attempt when Beckett was skipped

 

RELIEF PITCHING (A-)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- This area, more than any othe,r has kept the teams nose above water. They had a troubled first week, but once they settled into their roles and Valentine and Bob McClure learned their collective strengths, things changed quickly. Scott Atchison (1.42), Matt Albers (1.88), Andrew Miller  (2.31) and Rich Hill (2.84) all have ERA's under three and have combined to pitch 80 frames, while allowing only 60 hits. They have allowed 24 base on balls and struck out 66. None of them has an opponent batting average above .221 and Miller has held swingers to a meager .154 mark. Franklin Morales has been asked to warm-up and not appear more than anyone on the team, but he still has a respectable 3.48 ERA.

 

THE BAD NEWS- Neither Vincente Padilla or Alfredo Aceves has the numbers of the rest of the pen, but both have made major contributions. Padilla has often been a stabilizing source when needed and despite his 4.70 ERA, fans are comfortable when he is called to the mound. His walk (6) to strikeout (21) ratio is particularly eye openin.i Aceves leads the team in saves with a solid 14, but there is sort of a uneasy feel when he enters. He appears to have the make-up of a closer, but something is missing. Having said the above, other than his 5.02 ERA, he presents good numbers. Opponents hit only .234 against him, his hits to innings pitched is on the good side and his 12-31 walk/strikeout numbers are very respectable. Aceves is not your long term answer as the closer, but has done a decent job, can pitch just about every night and can even appear for more than one inning. In short, it has actually been the timing of the hits he has given up more than any of his other numbers that have left him short of expectations at times. Hitters are only hitting .234 against him and his 25 hits allowed in 28 2/3 frames and his 12-31 base on balls to strikeout numbers are more than acceptable. Mark Melancon was expected to be a big part of the relief corps and his 49.50 ERA after just four appearances in which he gave up 10 hits in just two innings, earned him a one way (thus far) ticket to Pawtucket. For what it is worth, Melancon has been outstanding in Triple-A as he has both an ERA and WHIP of 0.83 with 3 walks and 27 K's in 21 2/3 innings. He is more than ready to return, but whose place should he take?

 

CATCHING (C+)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- The improvement by Jarrod Saltalamacchia both offensively and defensively over the past month have brought this grade above average. He is becoming one of the top handful of catchers in the American League and Lester said this week "the fact that Jason (Varitek) is no longer here every day has allowed Jarrod to grow. We are developing more confidence in him all the time." Two late inning dramatic home runs have certainly allowed the number one catcher to be noticed. An opposition scout tells us "over the last few weeks, he is blocking wild pitches that were going back to the screen at the beginning of the season. He will always have problems with his release time because of his height, but that has improved along with his throwing accuracy." Kelly Shoppach was brought on board as a defensive specialist and is a receiver, who year in and year out, is near the top of the league in throwing out runners attempting to steal. He has done the job as advertised and his .275 batting average is more than expected. This could end up being one of the strongest positions on the team by seasons end.

 

THE BAD NEWS- What to do with Ryan Lavarnway. Many fans supported his advancement to the roster in April because of his contribution in the concluding days of the 2011 season. Red Sox brass has been blessed with Saltalamacchia's progress and Salty's future with the team will be assured if this improvement continues.

 

INFIELD (B)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- This group has done their part to keep the Sox in contention. Defensively they are solid as a group. Adrian Gonzalez has had a slow start at the plate, but there are signs lately that he is looking at more pitches each at bat and his patience has helped him with his overall timing. Dustin Pedroia has basically been a .300 hitter and if it were not for his thumb injury (and a resulting 14 hitless at bats) he might be well above the mark. The emergence of Will Middlebrooks has been a breath of fresh air at third base. He was on fire at Pawtucket (.333/9/27) and has basically stayed the same since being promoted (.312/6/22). Mike Aviles has been a surprise to most people at shortstop. In general, he has suitably replaced Marco Scutaro, where most persons expected him to fall short of that possibility. Sox exec Allard Baird thought this former Royal could handle the job and the infielder has proven him right. His 8 homers and 34 RBI's in the season's first third are very close to his previous high totals in seasons when he had 400 plus at bats.

 

THE BAD NEWS- A third of the way through the campaign and the status of Kevin Youkilis is still uncertain. Father Time, or just an injury jinx, has the veteran missing a number of contests every season now. His .246 average is over 40 points below his lifetime average and his projected numbers of 12 homers and 39 RBI's are nowhere close to the expected digits of 17/75 that he has averaged in seasons when he has missed a similar total of games to the disabled list. Those totals are light years away from the old numerals of 20/90 he averaged in healthy years as a regular. Nick Punto has really struggled in the back-up role. Just seven months ago, he ended up being a platooning regular on the St. Louis Cardinals World Championship team with a regular season batting mark of .278. He has only hit .180 with the Sox, but his two year contract may keep him around, unless someone has a need that miraculously he could fill. The name Jose Iglesias is still on the lips of several Sox fans (and he does stand out defensively every time we go to Pawtucket where he has brought his average up to .269), but it is unquestionably best that he accumulates the full season of at bats in Triple A to become as prepared as possible.

 

OUTFIELD (C)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- It is almost unfair to give this group any grade at all. Maybe they deserve an incomplete. There was a time this year when the team's first five outfielders on the depth chart (Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney and Ryan Kalish were all disabled at the same time. No one has actually set the world on fire, but there have been some very special performances. Daniel Nava probably leads the list. He was called up when no one expected it, including Nava. One week before his summons, he was just hoping they would include him in September, but wondered about that. They when the call came, the powers that be said they chose Nava because they were looking for a lefthanded bat, who would work the count. They have that and then some. At the one-third mark in the books of 2012, he stood at .306 with an RBI every four official at bats. He also had 19 walks and only 17 K's, the only Sox player (other than the injured Ellsbury 4-3) with more base on balls than strikeouts. He will not make anyone forget Carl Yastrzemski in left field, but he seems to make every play without fanfare or a mistake. Ryan Sweeney has given Sox nation more than anyone expected with a .302 start at the bat, strong outfield play and despite limited at bats stands ninth in the league in doubles. Cody Ross' .271 average could be better if he cut down on his 39 K's, but his 8 homres and 28 RBI's are just what the doctor ordered. Scott Podsednik has flirted with the .400 mark in his three week stint and provides the speed missing with Ellsbury and Crawford not around. Marlon Byrd played some strong centerfield at a time that the team was struggling and made the outfield defense a more formidable group. He was waived today to make room for Matsuzaka.

 

THE BAD NEWS- Ross has struggled some in the outfield , but has made no official errors. Darnell McDonald has hit only .197, but has supplied some timely hits, adds speed both on the base paths and in the outfield and will do anything to pick up the team. Despite all the good news in this category, these guys are all bit players that can really contribute to a championship team, but there is probably room on such team for only one of them to play regularly. If the injured Sox do not return, this band of gritty players are exciting and wonderful to watch, but do not have the combined tools to bring home the goods. Gonzalez gets an A for volunteering to play right field (and also to pitch in the 17 inning loss) and is the consumate team player, but an outfield has problems covering enough ground when he is a part of it. Despite that fact, there are times that this team is better when the bats of Youkilis and Middlebrooks are in the line-up with that of Gonzalez.

 

DESIGNATED HITTER (A)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- One wonders where this team would be without Ortiz. What he has done is short of amazing. He and Gonzalez are the only two Sox who have appeared in every game and his contributions at first base in National League cities have been uneventful. The overall condition he reported to spring training in and his daily hustle are as important as his production of .304/13 and 37. He is also on a pace to strike out less times per at bat than anytime in his career. Only twice in his career has he drawn more base on balls than times struck out and that possibility could come true again this season. In his spare time , he leads the league in intentional walks, is second in extra base hits, fourth in total bases, fifth in batting average at home, on base percentage and doubles, eighth in batting average, home runs, RBI's, slugging percentage, runs , multi-hit games and hardest players to double up.

 

THE BAD NEWS- He is at least 36 years old.

 

MANAGEMENT (B-)

 

THE GOOD NEWS- As each day passes Bobby Valentine is more accepted by players and fans alike as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. In reality, it is remarkable, how this team has performed since the day Valentine and the team to a degree were booed out of Fenway Park after blowing a 9-0 lead to the New York Yankees. The rainout the next night may have been the biggest moment to date this year. The team is 25-19 since that day and has moved 1 1/2 games closer to first place. Cherington did a strong job of colllecting spare parts to bring depth to this team at all positions, starting with the bullpen.

 

THE BAD NEWS- Valentine's use of several relievers a game may catch up with this team in the dog days of the season. He has presented the media numbers which show the team in the lower half of the league in appearances and innings pitched, but the rate is still alarmingly high compared to recent seasons. Despite the fact infielders were needed at the time, Cherington signed Punto to a two year contract that may come back to haunt him.

 

AUDITIONS- By the time August 31st rolls around, the bet here is that there may be as many as six new names on the Sox roster compared to today. It is easy to forecast Crawford, Ellsbury and Bailey and maybe even Bard or Melancon. The bottom line is that this roster is far from complete and the biggest question is what names will not be there.

 

Chances are that Beckett, Buchholz and Lester will be a part of the rotation, but which of Doubront, Matsusaka, Cook or Bard won't be?. When and if Andrew Bailey and Melancon return, who will be the odd man or two out? Will Middlebrooks remain on the roster all season and if so, will Youkilis be traded or will the Gonzalez right field triangle continue? If Gonzalez finds his way to right field to play the outfield on a number of days with Ellsbury and Crawford, who will get the majority of the remaining outfield at bats? Will it be Sweeney, Ross, Nava or Podsednik? Our bet is that  McDonald willl be the next one to leave, but then again, management loves McDonald.

 

The Sox are only one-third of the way through 2012. The roster roller coaster has a long ride remaining. STAY TUNED.